Gutenberg Research
  • Home
  • Education
    • Cooperative Education Program >
      • Virtual (Summer '23) >
        • Training Hub (Summer '23)
        • Meetings (Summer '23) >
          • Kick-off Call/Orientation (Summer '23)
          • Meeting 1: Building the Model (Summer '23)
          • Meeting 2: Entering Your Forecast Into The Model (Summer '23)
          • Meeting 3: Target Valuation (Summer '23)
          • Meeting 4: Live Starbucks Release (Summer '23)
          • Meeting 5: Live FOMC Policy Release & ERP Update (Summer '23)
        • Other Links (Summer '23) >
          • Model Submission (Summer '23)
          • Co-op Bio Form (Summer '23)
          • About the Exam (Summer '23)
          • Program Exam (Summer '23)
          • Completing the Program (Summer '23)
          • Co-op Program (Summer '23)
        • Classes (Summer '23) >
          • Class 1 - Introduction to Financial Modeling (Summer '23)
          • Class 2 - Building the Income Statement (Summer '23)
          • Class 3 - Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Modeling (Summer '23)
          • Class 4 - Model Calibration & Forecasting (Summer '23)
          • Class 5 - The DCF Inputs: Beta, ERP, CAPM, & WACC (Summer '23)
          • Class 6 - Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (Summer '23)
          • Class 7 - Market Multiple-Based Valuation (Summer '23)
          • Class 8 - How to Use Your Earnings Model (Summer '23)
      • Babson Bootcamp (Spring'23) >
        • Training Hub (Babson Spring'23)
        • Meetings (Babson) >
          • Kick-off Call/Orientation (Babson Spring'23)
          • Bootcamp Session (Babson Spring'23)
          • Live FOMC Statement Release (Spring'23)
          • Office Hours (Babson Spring'23)
          • Live Starbucks Release (Spring'23)
          • Lunch Discussion (Babson Spring'23)
        • Other Links (Babson) >
          • Model Submission (Spring'23)
          • Co-op Bio Form (Spring'23)
          • About the Exam
          • Program Exam (Spring'23)
          • Co-op Q&A (Spring'23)
          • Completing the Program
      • Virtual (Winter '22-'23) >
        • Training Hub (Winter'22-'23)
    • Books >
      • Procrastinator's Guide - SBUX >
        • Templates - SBUX
      • Book Registration - Third Edition >
        • Templates - Third Edition
      • Book Registration - Second Edition >
        • Templates - Second Edition
  • About
    • Contact
    • Email Distribution Sign-up
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy

Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) Model


​Model Tier: Tier 2, Consensus-based model. 
Model Summary: This model breaks down Amazon’s results by the company’s primary segments: North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). We use a quarter-over-quarter growth rate and historic seasonality to project future segment earnings.​​
Download Model
Subscribe for AMZN Model Updates

Amazon Model Approach

Revenue Modeling Approach: This model breaks down Amazon’s results by the company’s primary segments: North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). We use a quarter-over-quarter growth rate and historic seasonality to project future segment revenue.

Expense Modeling Approach: To estimate Cost of Revenue we use forecasts of Gross Margin percentage, and use operating margins estimates by segment to back into the four primary operating expense line items: Fulfillment, Marketing, Technology & Content, and General & Administrative Expense. We use historic averages to estimate Interest & Other Income, and apply an effective tax rate to the future projected income to forecast the Provision for Income Tax.

Non-GAAP Adjustments: Non-GAAP adjustments for Amazon include Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) and Amortization of Intangibles. To project future period SBC we use a ratio of SBC-to-Revenue, and base our estimate of Amortization of Intangibles on a historic average. We allocate the non-GAAP adjustments to operating expenses based on the prior period allocation.

Share Count Forecast: To forecast the future share count we calculate the historic change in share count, and apply similar changes in future periods.

Valuation Approach: We utilize a market multiple based valuation approach, specifically a Price-Earnings Multiple which we apply to the Next Twelve Month consensus EPS estimate, on an exCash basis.

Gutenberg Research is a media and education company. The information presented on our website and within Gutenberg Research models, files, or other content does not represent investment advice. Data and information presented on this website, or on third party websites posted by us, within our models, files, and other content is for demonstration only, and is presented “as is”. Neither Gutenberg Research nor any Gutenberg Research agents or associates are liable for any errors, delays, incompleteness of data presented, or for actions taken based on reliance on any information contained on this website or within Gutenberg Research models or other content. Investors should consult a professional investment adviser prior to making investment decisions. By accessing this site and/or receiving our models or other content you are deemed to have read and agreed to our Terms of Use posted on this website. This website uses Cookies, refer to our Privacy Policy for details. The Gutenberg Research logo is among the registered and unregistered trademarks of Gutenberg Research LLC. © Gutenberg Research LLC 2023. All Rights Reserved.