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Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Earnings Model


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Model Description: This model uses iPhone, iPad, Mac, Services, and Wearables, Home & Accessories growth rates to project future revenue. We forecast gross margin to estimate cost of sales, and use ratios to project the operating expense line items. Historic averages are used to estimate Other Income, and an effective tax rate is applied to the future projected income to forecast the income tax expense. We use operating ratios to project the primary accounts on the Balance Sheet, and Balance Sheet changes and earnings estimates to forecast the Cash Flow Statement. The model is calibrated to meet management's guidance and consensus estimates as a "base-case" scenario. You can enter your own assumptions into the blue cells to form your own earnings forecast.​
Basic Version: Includes 4 quarters of forecasts, Income Statement and Segment details with ratios.
Premium Version: Includes ~5 years of forecasts, Income Statement, Segment details, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow, and share valuation.​
Model Developer: John Moschella, CFA, CPA
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About Gutenberg Research

​​We are an interactive earnings modeling community, driving the evolution of equity research. Our mission is to make dynamic earnings models, available to everyone. We are currently building an inventory of models covering companies...continue reading 

Modeling Training Program

Our Certificate in Financial Modeling Program provides an easy to follow, step-by-step approach to financial modeling training.  In this program we build a financial model from the ground up..continue reading

New to Earnings Modeling? Check Out Our Training Program or Textbook

Certificate in Financial Modeling Program
In this program we build a financial model from the ground up, starting with a blank spreadsheet, and ending with a comprehensive set of interrelated financial statements and share valuation estimates. There are three primary components to the program, all designed to add various elements to your training: 1) the written curriculum, 2) demonstration videos, and 3) supporting spreadsheets.  At the completion of this training program you will receive a Certificate in Financial Modeling from The Equity Research Institute at Gutenberg Research. In order to qualify for the Certificate, you must pass our financial modeling exam which covers the topics in the program curriculum, and submit an earnings model based on the methods described in the program curriculum.
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Financial Modeling for Equity Research
This book demonstrates step-by-step how to create a financial model, similar to the models maintained by Wall Street equity research analysts. The accompanying spreadsheets demonstrate the key concepts and can be used as templates to create an earnings model for nearly any company. Readers without prior financial analysis experience will gain a fundamental understanding of exactly what modeling entails, and will learn how to create a basic form of an earnings model. Advanced readers will be introduced to more complex topics such as linking the financial statements, future period calibration, and incorporating macroeconomic variables into discounted valuation analysis through the equity risk premium and application of the capital asset pricing model.
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Past Models From Our Community


Gordon Leong

Last Updated: June 25, 2017
View on Apple: Bearish
Price Target: $139
Model Up Votes-to-Total Votes: 70%
Primary Model Assumptions: I have made the following assumptions in my Apple Inc Model:
  • iPhone Unit Growth Rate: The trend over the last three years shows that Apple has been facing major difficulty in maintaining high unit sales growth rates (compared to the triple digit year-over-year growth achieved with the iPhone 4). I believe that it is highly likely that the release of the new Samsung flagship will have a detrimental impact on iPhone sales, particularly since the focus on the Samsung battery issues has diminished over time. To reflect this view I have modeled iPhone unit sales up 2.5% in 2017, followed by growth of just 0.4% in 2018. Click here to continue reading
Gordon Leong AAPL Model.xlsx
File Size: 139 kb
File Type: xlsx
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