Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Earnings Model
NOTE: This model needs an update to include the earnings release on 4/30/2019. We will update the model and repost it here soon...stay tune!
Model Methodology: This model uses iPhone, iPad, Mac, services, and Wearables, Home & Accessories growth rates to project future revenue. We forecast gross margin to estimate cost of sales, and use ratios to project the operating expense line items. Historic averages are used to estimate Other Income, and an effective tax rate is applied to the future projected income to forecast the income tax expense. We use operating ratios to project the primary accounts on the Balance Sheet, and Balance Sheet changes and earnings estimates to forecast the Cash Flow Statement. The model is calibrated to meet management's guidance and consensus estimates as a "base-case" scenario. You can enter your own assumptions into the blue cells to form your own earnings forecast.
Basic Version: Includes 4 quarters of forecasts, Income Statement and Segment details.
Premium Version: Includes ~5 years of forecasts, Income Statement, Segment details, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow, and target share valuation.
Date of last Model Update: 4/10/2019
Model Developer: John Moschella, CFA, CPA
New to Earnings Modeling? Check Out Our Training Program or Textbook
In this program we build a financial model from the ground up, starting with a blank spreadsheet, and ending with a comprehensive set of interrelated financial statements and share valuation estimates. There are three primary components to the program, all designed to add various elements to your training: 1) the written curriculum, 2) demonstration videos, and 3) supporting spreadsheets. At the completion of this training program you will receive a Certificate in Financial Modeling from The Equity Research Institute at Gutenberg Research. In order to qualify for the Certificate, you must pass our financial modeling exam which covers the topics in the program curriculum, and submit an earnings model based on the methods described in the program curriculum.
This book demonstrates step-by-step how to create a financial model, similar to the models maintained by Wall Street equity research analysts. The accompanying spreadsheets demonstrate the key concepts and can be used as templates to create an earnings model for nearly any company. Readers without prior financial analysis experience will gain a fundamental understanding of exactly what modeling entails, and will learn how to create a basic form of an earnings model. Advanced readers will be introduced to more complex topics such as linking the financial statements, future period calibration, and incorporating macroeconomic variables into discounted valuation analysis through the equity risk premium and application of the capital asset pricing model.
Past Models From Our Community
Last Updated: June 25, 2017
View on Apple: Bearish
Price Target: $139
Model Up Votes-to-Total Votes: 70%
Primary Model Assumptions: I have made the following assumptions in my Apple Inc Model: