Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Model

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    Model Tier: Tier 1, Consensus-based model. ​
    Model Summary: This model uses iPhone, iPad, Mac, and iWatch unit sales growth rates and average selling price to project future revenue. We forecast gross margin to estimate cost of sales, and use ratios to project the operating expense line items. Historic averages are used to estimate Other Income, and an effective tax rate is applied to the future projected income to forecast the income tax expense. We use operating ratios to project the primary accounts on the Balance Sheet, and Balance Sheet changes and earnings estimates to forecast the Cash Flow Statement.
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Gordon Leong

Last Updated: June 25, 2017
View on Apple: Bearish
Price Target: $139
Model Up Votes-to-Total Votes: 70%
Primary Model Assumptions: I have made the following assumptions in my Apple Inc Model:
  • iPhone Unit Growth Rate: The trend over the last three years shows that Apple has been facing major difficulty in maintaining high unit sales growth rates (compared to the triple digit year-over-year growth achieved with the iPhone 4). I believe that it is highly likely that the release of the new Samsung flagship will have a detrimental impact on iPhone sales, particularly since the focus on the Samsung battery issues has diminished over time. To reflect this view I have modeled iPhone unit sales up 2.5% in 2017, followed by growth of just 0.4% in 2018. Click here to continue reading
Gordon Leong AAPL Model.xlsx
File Size: 139 kb
File Type: xlsx
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