Company Earnings Models
Adobe Systems Inc (NASDAQ: ADBE)
This model projects future earnings based on revenue growth and margin assumptions for the company's three main segments: Digital Media, Digital Marketing, and Print & Publishing. |
Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA)
This model breaks down Alibaba’s results by segment. GMV and monetization rate estimates are used to forecast future period revenue. |
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL)
This model breaks down Alphabet’s results by segment. Revenue is shown gross and net of Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC). Ratio analysis is used to complete the financial statements. |
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN)
This model breaks down Amazon’s results by segment: North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). Growth rates and historic seasonality are used to project future earnings. |
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
This model uses iPhone, iPad, Mac, services, and Wearables, Home & Accessories growth rates to project future revenue. Ratio analysis is used to complete the Income Statement. Ratio analysis is used to complete the Income Statement. |
Boeing Co (NYSE:BA)
This model uses revenue growth rates and operating margin estimates to predict future earnings for Boeing's three primary segments: Commercial Airplanes, Defense Space & Security, and Boeing Capital. |
Box Inc (NYSE:BOX)
This model uses revenue growth rates and ratio analysis to project future earnings. |
Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ:CSCO)
This model disaggregates Cisco's earnings by Segment: Switching, NGN Routing, Collaboration, Service Provider Video, Data Centers, Wireless, and Security. |
Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA)
This model uses growth rate estimates for products and services, and margin assumptions to predict future earnings. |
Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY)
This model uses GMS to project Marketplace revenue, and active sellers to project Seller Service Revenue. |
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META)
This model uses Monthly Active User growth rates and Average Revenue Per User to project future Revenue. |
Foot Locker Inc (NYSE:FL)
This model uses estimates for store counts, square footage, and sales per square foot to forecast revenue. |
Ferrari NV (NYSE:RACE)
This model breaks down Ferrari’s results by segment, and projects revenue based on the number of cars sold and average selling price per car. |
Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD)
This model uses comparable store sales, store count estimates, and ratio analysis to forecast earnings. |
Host Hotels & Resorts (NYSE:HST)
This model projects future earnings using assumptions for hotel rooms, average room rates, occupancy rates and RevPAR. |
iRobot Corp (NASDAQ:IRBT)
This model projects future earnings using product unit growth and gross margin assumptions. |
Macy's Inc (NYSE:M)
This model projects future earnings using an estimate of store counts, and same store sales growth. |
Marriott Intl Inc (NYSE:MAR)
This model projects future earnings using assumptions for hotel rooms, average room rates, occupancy rates and RevPAR. |
McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD)
This model breaks down McDonald’s results by Company Operated and Franchised Restaurants. The number of each type of restaurant is forecasted and an estimate of revenue per restaurant is used to determine future revenue. |
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT)
To forecast revenue, this model applies growth rates to the four reportable segments: Productivity & Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, More Personal Computing, and Corporate & Other. |
Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST)
This model uses the unit case sales and average revenue per case to forecast Monster’s future period revenue. Ratio analysis is applied to the revenue estimate to forecast costs and other Income Statement line items. |
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX)
This model breaks down Netflix’s earnings into three segments: Domestic Streaming, International Streaming, and DVD. For each segment the growth in users and revenue per user are forecasted, and used to estimate total revenue. |
Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE)
This model uses growth rates for Footwear, Apparel, and Equipment for each segment to project future revenue. Ratio analysis is used to complete the Income Statement. |
PepsiCo Inc (NYSE:PEP)
This model uses revenue growth rates and operating margin by segment to project future earnings. |
Sketchers USA Inc (NYSE:SKX)
This model uses growth rates and margin assumptions for the Domestic and International Wholesale Segments, and uses store counts and sales per store to forecast Retail Segment earnings. |
Square Inc (NYSE:SQ)
This model projects future earnings based on Gross Payment Volume (GPV) estimates and segment margin forecasts. |
Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX)
This model uses estimates of new stores and revenue per store by geographic region to project future revenue. |
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)
This model uses estimates of vehicle deliveries and average selling price per vehicle to project future revenue. |
Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR)
This model breaks down Twitter’s earnings into two segments: United States and International, and forecasts user growth rates and average revenue per user for each segment. |
Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA)
This model breaks down Under Armour’s results by segment: North America, International and Connected Fitness. |
United Continental (NYSE:UAL)
This model uses revenue passenger miles, Available Seat Miles (ASM), passenger load factors, Passenger Revenue per ASM (PRASM), and Cost per Average Seat Mile (CASM) to project future earnings. |
Visa Inc (NYSE:V)
This model uses estimates for payment volume and transaction estimates to forecast revenue, and ratio analysis is applied to the revenue estimate to forecast costs and other Income Statement line items. |
Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS)
This model applies growth rates to each segment (Cable Networks, Broadcasting, Parks, Studio, Consumer, and Interactive) to forecast earnings. Ratio analysis is used to complete the Income Statement. |
FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX)
This model uses Average Daily shipping Volume (ADV) and package yield (revenue per package), to project future revenue. Expenses are driven by assumptions for fuel expense, and capex. |
Equity Risk Premium Model
In this spreadsheet we estimate the market Equity Risk Premium (ERP) using the Constant Sharpe approach, and forecasts for interest rates, volatility, and equity market returns. |