Wallis Toscarelli's Contributor Page
Last Updated: July 26, 2020 (Prior to the 2Q2020 earnings release).
View: Bearish
Model Description: Accounting for the adverse impact of COVID-19 on Facebook, this model assumes that Monthly Active Users (MAUs) will continue to increase throughout Q4 2020 due to social distancing restrictions, but will decrease back to trending historical levels in 2022. Despite this, recognizing that companies with limited funds due to COVID-19 are pulling advertisements from Facebook, this models projects Facebook's Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) to severely decrease in 2Q, and to slowly begin increasing late 2020 into 2021. This model is in line with the guidance from Goldman Sachs that Facebook's revenues will be dampened until late mid/late 2021; estimating that Facebook's revenues and EPS for 2Q 2020 will be $17.19B and $1.36.
View: Bearish
Model Description: Accounting for the adverse impact of COVID-19 on Facebook, this model assumes that Monthly Active Users (MAUs) will continue to increase throughout Q4 2020 due to social distancing restrictions, but will decrease back to trending historical levels in 2022. Despite this, recognizing that companies with limited funds due to COVID-19 are pulling advertisements from Facebook, this models projects Facebook's Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) to severely decrease in 2Q, and to slowly begin increasing late 2020 into 2021. This model is in line with the guidance from Goldman Sachs that Facebook's revenues will be dampened until late mid/late 2021; estimating that Facebook's revenues and EPS for 2Q 2020 will be $17.19B and $1.36.
| FB Earnings Model (Wallis Toscarelli).xlsx |
Wallis Toscarelli is a rising junior at Stevens Institute of Technology studying Quantitative Finance with a concentration in Finance & Economics. She currently serves as the Operations Portfolio Manager for the Stevens Student Managed Investment Fund, a student-run sub-portfolio of the Stevens endowment valued at $500,000. Wallis is a participant of the internship program at Prudential Financial, where she serves as a Financial and Investment Audit Intern. She additionally serves as the Vice President of Leadership of Stevens' DECA chapter, a student career and technical business organization, where she is responsible for organizing seminars and events in anticipation of preparing emerging leaders in various business disciplines. Wallis' current career interests within the field are investment banking and asset & wealth management.
Disclosure: The author of this article/model has no financial investment or other conflict of interest related to the subject company or other companies discussed. Any views made or implied in the content represent the author’s opinions.
Disclosure: The author of this article/model has no financial investment or other conflict of interest related to the subject company or other companies discussed. Any views made or implied in the content represent the author’s opinions.