Bill-the-Bear's Contributor Page

    ​I have worked in the Finance Industry for the last 20 years in various buy-side roles. I typically take a contrarian view, and go against the consensus estimates.  I focus my research efforts on finding the best short-sale candidates by continually questioning the status quo.

Bill-the-Bear's Models

​Last Updated: January 13, 2017 (Prior to the 4Q16 release)
View on Facebook: Bearish
Price Target: $108
​Summary of Model Estimates: With all the analyst upgrades on Facebook this week ahead of the fourth quarter release, now is the perfect time to short shares. Ad load has gotten out of hand and management knows it. This is why they warned on revenue growth rates early in 2016. In my Facebook model, I adjusted ARPU for each region to be inline with last year’s rates. This results in a share valuation of $108, which is about 15% lower than then Friday’s close without adjusting the PE-multiple.
Bill-the-Bear FB Model.xlsx
File Size: 80 kb
File Type: xlsx
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