Indi Morel's Contributor Page
Last Updated: Prior to the 4Q2020 earnings release
Model Forecast Overview: Although the pandemic may overshadow the traditional seasonal impact of the fourth quarter, Starbucks has shown a great ability to adapt to changes. Starbucks has, in the past, monitored consumer preference trends, launched loyalty and rewards programs, and reacted swiftly to other changes in industry dynamics. As such, it will continue to do so in the COVID-19 environment, which will cause sales to rebound quickly. Having a more neutral opinion, my estimates follow management’s guidance. Most assumptions used in this model are based on the trends in the U.S. market. However, it’s important to note that China is a big market for Starbucks, comprising a substantial part of its international segment. Therefore, assumptions for the international segment are heavily based on expectations for China. I believe we will not see a return to “business as usual”, meaning life as it was before the pandemic. Instead, I believe the world will adapt to a “new normal” by the end of the second quarter of 2021.....click here to continue reading
Model Forecast Overview: Although the pandemic may overshadow the traditional seasonal impact of the fourth quarter, Starbucks has shown a great ability to adapt to changes. Starbucks has, in the past, monitored consumer preference trends, launched loyalty and rewards programs, and reacted swiftly to other changes in industry dynamics. As such, it will continue to do so in the COVID-19 environment, which will cause sales to rebound quickly. Having a more neutral opinion, my estimates follow management’s guidance. Most assumptions used in this model are based on the trends in the U.S. market. However, it’s important to note that China is a big market for Starbucks, comprising a substantial part of its international segment. Therefore, assumptions for the international segment are heavily based on expectations for China. I believe we will not see a return to “business as usual”, meaning life as it was before the pandemic. Instead, I believe the world will adapt to a “new normal” by the end of the second quarter of 2021.....click here to continue reading
| SBUX Earnings Model (Morel).xlsx |
My name is Indi Morel, I am originally from Brazil and I have been living in Cambridge, MA since 2011. I am currently a MSF student at the F.W. Olin Graduate School of Business at Babson College. I have been working at CSI (Container Services International), a subsidiary of an Icelandic publicly traded shipping company, as an accountant since 2016.
Disclosure: The author of this article/model has no financial investment or other conflict of interest related to the subject company or other companies discussed. Any views made or implied in the content represent the author’s opinions.
Disclosure: The author of this article/model has no financial investment or other conflict of interest related to the subject company or other companies discussed. Any views made or implied in the content represent the author’s opinions.