Paul DeAngelis' Contributor Page

Paul is a student at the University of Connecticut. He is studying finance and economics at the UConn School of Business. Paul is also the president of his fraternity and works at the school's recreational facility. In his spare time, Paul likes to play golf and spend time at the beach.
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​Gutenberg Company Assignments: Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) 
Contributor Type: Intern, Senior Research Associate.

Paul's Models

Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD)
Latest Update: July 4, 2016.
Model Summary: This model uses customer transactions, average ticket value, and ratio analysis to project future earnings.
HD Model 7-3-2016.xlsx
File Size: 67 kb
File Type: xlsx
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Last Updated: February 22, 2017
2017 ERP Estimate: 5.0%
​Model Up Votes-to-Total Votes: 67%
Summary of Model Estimates: In general I have a bullish outlook on the market for 2017 based on the following:
  • Trump's expected business deregulation initiatives and corporate tax reform (including the repatriation tax) could begin soon and may drive an increase in reinvestment in the US Economy. In the long-term, I believe Trump's economic policies will eventually bring some form of financial crisis (possibly with the overvalued stock market as the underlying asset bubble) but as for 2017, I think the market will continue to propel to higher levels. To reflect this view I have incorporated a total return of 18% on the S&P500 into my ERP model. 
  • I believe the positive market conditions will cause interest rates to increase above 3% by the end of the year.
  • The VIX has been fluctuating on the low side this year (between 10-12%) despite some of the President's volatile decisions. I believe volatility will increase later in the year and reach a 12-month trailing average of 15.5%.
  • Based on these assumptions I expect the market's Equity Risk Premium to reach 5% by the end of 2017.
Paul DeAngelis ERP Model.xlsx
File Size: 1066 kb
File Type: xlsx
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